Analytics Guide

The Analytics page provides historical context, predictive outlooks, and pattern intelligence to help you anticipate — not just react to — developing energy risk.

Predictive Outlook

The Predictive Outlook synthesizes trajectory analysis, instability scoring, and historical pattern matching into forward-looking risk forecasts across three time horizons.

WHY0–6 Hours

The primary driver of current conditions and the basis for the near-term risk assessment. Answers: why is the current risk score what it is?

WHAT6–24 Hours

The dominant signal determining near-term direction. Typically the factor most likely to change conditions within the next operational day.

WATCH24–48 Hours

Developing conditions that could escalate into material risk. Not yet at elevated levels — but trending in a direction that warrants awareness.

NEXT

The recommended next action based on current trajectory and horizon forecasts. This is the platform's operational suggestion — not a directive. Apply your own judgment and context.

Example

WHY: Risk is currently Low, primarily driven by weather demand. Current risk score: 2.1/10. Trajectory is stable.
WHAT: Dominant signal is weather demand. Momentum low.
WATCH: Watch for another failed recovery pattern. Monitor for repeated escalation-recovery cycling.
NEXT: Risk expected to remain at low levels through the near-term outlook. Historical patterns support continued stability.

Risk Trajectory

The Risk Momentum Chart shows the historical risk score over the selected time window (24h, 48h, or 7d). The OLS trend line shows the direction of conditions over time — not just the current snapshot.

EscalatingRisk score trending upward. Even if current score is Low or Medium, an escalating trajectory indicates building pressure that may reach higher levels.
StableRisk score flat or minor variation. Conditions are holding at current levels. Standard monitoring appropriate.
RecoveringRisk score declining from a recent elevated level. Conditions are improving, but watch for failed recoveries that reverse.
VolatileFrequent oscillation between risk levels. Indicates unstable grid conditions — a common precursor to sustained High risk events.

State Transitions

The Transitions tab shows every risk level change (Low↔Medium↔High) over the historical window, with instability scoring and pattern detection.

Instability Score (0–100)

Measures how often and severely conditions have oscillated. High instability (60+) indicates a market environment prone to rapid escalation. Low instability (below 30) indicates stable, predictable conditions.

Example — Reading Transition Patterns

If the Transitions panel shows 3 escalations and 3 recoveries within 24 hours with an instability score of 75, conditions are volatile. A sustained escalation may be building. Consider tightening alert thresholds and reviewing procurement exposure.

Pattern Memory

Pattern Memory compares current conditions to all historical snapshots — finding the closest matches and showing what happened next.

The matching considers risk level, ERCOT price, demand pressure, and primary driver simultaneously. Each match is scored by similarity percentage.

Example — Using Pattern Memory

Pattern Memory shows current conditions match historical snapshots from June 2024 with 87% similarity. In those historical cases, conditions escalated to Medium risk within 4 hours 3 out of 5 times. This context supports a more cautious operational posture even if the current score is Low.
Alert Center

TX Energy Risk provides operational intelligence and situational awareness only. The platform does not provide investment, trading, procurement, legal, engineering, or financial advice. Users remain responsible for all operational and business decisions.